Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[valves]

bastante força estão hoje a mostrar os mercados do lado de lá do Atlântico ...

[Infoo]

Passagen rápida pr deixar os dados das 13:30

'ganda' core ppi... caiu .3%... e os futuros states dispararam... mercados europeus dispararam..... mercados americanos começam dia a subir ajudados pelos bonds q caiem

bem.... a ver se states aguentam o upa upa atéfinal do dia, ou se começam a remoer o cpi de amanhã



8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY ENERGY PPI UP 1.3%
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 7.9% IN PAST YEAR
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. CORE FINISHED PPI UP 1.3% IN PAST YEAR
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY CRUDE PPI UP 3.1%
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.5%
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY CORE PPI FALLS 0.3% VS. 0.2% RISE EXPECTED
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 0.1% VS. 0.3%

ECONOMIC REPORT: Core wholesale prices fall 0.3% in July; Core intermediate PPI up 7.9% in past year
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:21 AM ET Aug 15, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inflationary pressures at the wholesale level eased in July, but price pressures mounted for goods midway through the production process, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday

The producer price index for finished goods rose 0.1% in July, below the 0.3% gain expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

The core PPI -- which excludes food and energy prices - fell 0.3%, the first decline since October. Economists expected the core rate to rise 0.2%.
Vehicle prices fell 2%, accounting for the decline in the core PPI.

"We don't want to over-emphasize the weakness, for it could be reversed in coming months," said Dana Saporta, an analyst for Stone & McCarthy Research.
Markets rallied on the news. The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury fell by 5 basis points to 4.95% from 5% earlier. Stocks opened much stronger.

"The market has been giving the [Federal Reserve] the benefit of the doubt that growth will slow sufficiently to keep inflation in check, and these data support that view," said analysts at Action Economics.

Finished energy prices rose 1.3% in July, including a 1.8% increase in wholesale residential electric power prices. Wholesale gasoline prices rose 0.7%.

Finished food prices fell 0.3%. Prices of capital equipment goods fell 0.2%.

Car prices fell 0.8%. Light truck prices fell 3.1%. Excluding autos, the core PPI was roughly flat, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.

The PPI rose 0.5% in June, with the core rate up 0.2%. The PPI is up 4.2% in the past year, compared with a 4.9% gain in June. The core PPI is up 1.3% in the past year, compared with a 1.9% gain in June.

Inflationary pressures were persistent further back in the production pipeline.

Prices of crude materials rose 3.1%, including a 4.8% rise in energy materials, such as crude petroleum, and a 1.3% gain in prices of industrial materials, such as nonferrous metal ores.

For intermediate goods destined for further processing before final sale, prices rose 0.5% in July. Core intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%, bringing the year-over-year increase to 7.9%, the most since February 2005.

Prices of metals and chemicals continued to rise.

The Federal Reserve watches the core intermediate PPI carefully for signs that firms are facing stronger inflationary pressures, but the Fed is most focused on the prices consumers pay.

"There are still a lot of pressures in the system that will be subject to pass-throughs," said Ken Mayland, president of Clear View Economics. "My advice to Fed Chairman Bernanke: don't pop any champagne corks yet."

The Labor Department will report on the July consumer price index on Wednesday. Economists figure the CPI rose 0.4%, with a fifth consecutive 0.3% rise in the core CPI probable.

The soft reading in the PPI in June - if matched in the CPI - would raise hopes that inflationary pressures are easing, allowing the Fed to continue to hold interest rates steady at the Sept. 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Most economists, however, believe the Fed will hike interest rates at least once more before the end of the year.

Last week, for the first time in more than two years, the Fed met without raising its overnight interest rate target. The Fed said a cooling economy should reduce inflationary pressures over time.


8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE JOB INDEX 6.5 VS 6.4 IN JULY
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE PRICE PAID INDEX 44.6 VS 50.5 IN JULY
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE '05
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 13.9
8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 10.3 VS REV 16.6 IN JULY

ECONOMIC REPORT: Factory activity slows in New York; Empire State index falls to 10.3, lowest level since June 2005
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:54 AM ET Aug 15, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year in August, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to a reading of 10.3 in August from a revised 16.6 in July.

The decline was larger than expected. Economists had been predicting the index would slip to 13.9 from the initial estimate of 15.6.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early forecast of the national Institute for Supply Management factory survey due out in two weeks. In July, the ISM factory index rose to 54.7% from 53.8% in the previous month.

Economists said the latest Empire State report wasn't as weak as the headline number suggested.

They pointed out that the headline index isn't a composite of various components like the ISM survey. They also noted there was strength in new orders and shipments in August.

But overall, "this survey does not seriously challenge the view of a gradual loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector," said Richard Iley, economist at BNP Parisbas.

In August, the new orders index rose to 19.1 from 11.3 in July. Shipments rose to 14.8 from 12.3 in July.

Unfilled orders fell sharply to -7.4 from 4.6 in the previous month.

The employment index rose slightly to 6.5 from 6.4, while the workweek index rose to 13.7 from 9.5.

The prices paid index slipped to 44.6 from 50.5 in July. The prices received index fell to 14.9 from 16.5.

Inventories were negative for the third consecutive month, improving slightly to -9.9 from -12.9.

Future indexes generally dipped in August, indicating a decline in the level of optimism about the outlook among businesses surveyed by the New York Fed.

The index of future capital expenditures rose to 26.5 in August from 22.0 in the previous month.