Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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8:30 AM ET 3/2/06 U.S. INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 1.9%
8:30 AM ET 3/2/06 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 5,250 TO 287,250
8:30 AM ET 3/2/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 5-YEAR LOW OF 2.49MLN
8:30 AM ET 3/2/06 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 15,000 TO 294,000

ECONOMIC REPORT: Jobless claims rise 15,000 to 294,000; Continuing claims fall to 5-year low during survey week
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:32 AM ET Mar 2, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Initial applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits rose by 15,000 to 294,000 in the week ending Feb. 25, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The four-week average of new claims rose by 5,250 to 287,250. The four-week average smoothes out the data to reduce the impact of one-time events such as storms or holidays.

A Labor Department official said seasonal adjustment factors could not entirely adjust for the timing of the Lincoln's birthday and Presidents Day holidays. State unemployment offices are closed on federal and state holidays, cutting into the time available for filing claims.

Meanwhile, the number of workers collecting state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a five-year low of 2.486 million in the week ending Feb. 18, the same week the government surveyed hundreds of thousands of businesses and households for its monthly employment report.

The four-week average of continuing claims dropped by 2,750 to a five-year low of 2.508 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.9%.

Economists say the new low in continuing claims indicates the labor market is still strengthening. With the unemployment rate at a cyclical low of 4.7%, Federal Reserve officials are concerned that tight labor markets will translate into higher wages and thus into higher prices for almost everything.

The Fed is expected to raise overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage points to 4.75% at its March 28 meeting and perhaps again at the May 10 meeting.

Critics of further Fed tightening say the low unemployment rate masks considerable slack in the labor market, with the employment participation rate stuck at 66%, more than percentage point below the pre-recession peak.

The Labor Department will report the February nonfarm payroll data on March 10. It's one of the few times the data do not come out on the first Friday of the month.

Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to grow about 190,000 in February, about the same as the 193,000 increase in January. They expect some payback in February from the warm January weather, but believe underlying fundamentals in the market will keep employment gains healthy.

New filings in this range are consistent with steady job growth of 200,000 or more per month, economists say. Claims represent only one piece of the employment puzzle: layoffs. New hires are picked up only the monthly jobs report.