Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI ENERGY PRICES DOWN 2.0%
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI CORE UP 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI UP 2.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI FIRST DECLINE SINCE JULY 2004
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI DOWN 0.1% VS UP 0.1% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL INVENTORIES-SALES RATIO FALLS TO 1.30
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS SALES UP 1.2%
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.2%
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RISE 0.3%, AS EXPECTED

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX 11.7 VS. -11.1 IN MAY
8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 3.9


ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. consumer prices edge down 0.1%; First decline since last July on drop in energy prices
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET June 15, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Falling energy prices pushed U.S. consumer prices lower for the first time since last July, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index decreased 0.1% in May, driven by a 2.0% fall in energy prices, the biggest decrease in energy prices since July 2004. This is the first monthly decline in the CPI since last July.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.1% in May.

The decline in the CPI was unexpected. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.1% in May after a 0.5% gain in April. The core rate was also more moderate than forecast. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% in May after remaining unchanged in April.

In the past year, the CPI has risen 2.8%, down from 3.5% in April. This is the lowest year-over-year increase since last September. The core rate is up 2.2% in the past 12 months, the same rate as the previous month.

The CPI report is likely to reassure markets that inflationary pressures remain contained, as the Federal Reserve has been saying.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets again on June 29 and 30 to consider a ninth consecutive rate hike. Most economists expect a quarter point hike in June, bringing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%. But there is a split among economists over whether the Fed will continue to hike rates at each of the last four meetings of the year.

In the CPI release, energy prices decreased 2.0% in May as gasoline prices fell 4.4% and natural gas prices dropped 0.2%. Electricity prices rose 1.4%, the biggest gain since January.

Food prices increased 0.1% as food for preparation at home rose 0.1%. Pork prices sank 2.1%, the largest decline in almost 22 years.

Housing prices, which represent about 40% of the CPI market basket, increased 0.1%. Lodging away from home dropped a record 2.4%.

Transportation costs dropped 1.0% as fuel prices fell. New car prices increased 0.1%. Airfares rose 2.2%.

Apparel prices were unchanged in May.

Medical care prices increased 0.3%, including 0.6% for prescription drugs and 0.3% for hospital services.

Tobacco prices increased 0.2%.


ECONOMIC REPORT: April business inventories up 0.3% ; Rise meets analysts' expectations
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:32 AM ET June 15, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.3% in April, falling slightly from the month-ago level of 0.5%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

The rise in inventories was slower than the 1.2% increase in sales, the Commerce Department figures show. The inventory-to-sales ratio, a closely watched measure of how fast merchandise is moving from the warehouse out the door, dropped slightly to 1.30 in April from 1.31 in March.

Economists had been expecting the nation's inventories to rise 0.3% in April, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Both including and excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.2%.

The figures are adjusted for seasonal factors but not for price changes.

Inventories at manufacturing firms grew 0.1% in April. Manufacturing sales dropped to a 0.7% increase after rising 1.6% in March.

Inventories at wholesalers increased 0.8% while sales rose 1.5%.


U.S. June Empire State index rebounds to 11.7

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area posted a stronger-than-expected rebound in June, reversing most of the decline seen since March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Wednesday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 11.7 in June from -11.1 in May. Readings over zero indicate expansion.

Economists were expecting the index to rebound to about 3.9 in June.