Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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10:01am 04/26/05 U.S. APRIL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 98.1
10:01am 04/26/05 U.S. APRIL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 97.7

10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.27M V. 1.23M
10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 1.3% Y-O-Y TO $212K
10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY 3.6-MONTH SUPPLY
10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY DOWN 0.9% TO 433,000
10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES BEAT 1.19M EXPECTED
10:00am 04/26/05 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES UP 12% TO RECORD 1.43 MILLION

ECONOMIC REPORT: Consumer confidence drops again; Expectations of future at lowest level since July 2003
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:45 AM ET April 26, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence declined for the third straight month, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 97.7 points in April from 103 in March, according to the independent business-research group. Confidence is at its lowest level since November.

The decline was sharper than expected. Economists had forecast the index would slip to 98.1 from the earlier estimate of 102.4, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

"Less robust current conditions and a more cautious outlook have consumers feeling less confident in April than in March," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

The present-situation index fell to 113.6 points from 117, while the expectations index slipped to 87.2 points from 93.7. This is the lowest level of the expectations index since July 2003.

"The bad news is that expectations are a much better guide to future spending than current conditions, and the signal is clearly for a slowdown over the next few months," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The drop is big enough to imply second-quarter consumption growth of maybe 2% or so, Shepherdson said in a note to clients.

Although the percentage claiming business conditions are "good" edged up to 27% from 26.3%, those claiming conditions are "bad" increased to 17.7% from 15.8% in March.

The employment picture was mixed. Consumers who said jobs are "hard to get" declined to 23.3% from 23.8%, but those claiming jobs are "plentiful" also declined to 20.4% from 21.8%.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said March new home sales were much stronger than expected.


ECONOMIC REPORT: New home sales smash old record; U.S. March sales jump 12% to 1.43 million annual rate
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:36 AM ET April 26, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales jumped 12% in March to a record 1.431 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

March sales smashed the previous record of 1.304 million homes set in October. It was the largest percentage gain in nearly 12 years.

The increase far outpaced expectations of economists, who forecast a slight pullback in sales to 1.19 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

With sales heating up, the inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 0.9% to 433,000, representing a tight 3.6-month supply at the March sales pace. Read the full report.

The median price of a new sold home fell 9.3% in March to $212,300. Median prices - with half the homes selling for more and half for less -- are up 1.3% in the past year.

On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales rose to 6.89 million in March, the third highest total ever. Median prices for existing homes are up 11.4% in the past year, the biggest increase in 25 years. See full story.

The hot housing market is fueled by still-low interest rates, rising incomes and a widespread belief that real estate is the best investment. Some policymakers are considering whether the housing market could be showing signs of speculation that marks an investment bubble.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark short-term interest rate again next week to 3%. Despite a 1.75 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate in the latest cycle of monetary tightening by the Fed, mortgage rates have remained relatively low.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the April consumer confidence index sank to 97.7 points and the expectations index fell to the lowest level in two years.

The government revised its estimate of February new home sales higher to 1.275 million from 1.226 million previously reported.

The government cautions that its housing data are volatile and subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. It can take up to six months for a new trend in sales to emerge.

In the past six months, sales have averaged 1.27 million homes, compared with 1.23 million in the six months ended in February.

In all of 2004, 1.203 million new homes were sold.