Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[nunofaustino]

Hum... isto n deve ser bom para o dólar
"that China has had to make large purchases of U.S. Treasury issues in order to maintain the peg"

Um abraço
Nuno

[Info....]

Greenspan: Yuan peg undermines Chinese economy (11:30am

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- China's peg between its yuan currency and the U.S. dollar is "beginning to significantly work to the detriment of the Chinese economy," Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.
In response to a question in testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, Greenspan noted that China has had to make large purchases of U.S. Treasury issues in order to maintain the peg, but has had difficulty making adequate offsetting sales of yuan-denominated debt.
This has created imbalances "which suggest sooner rather than later that they're going to have to -- for stability's purposes -- move their currency."

[mcarvalho]

Greenspan alerta que défices recorde dos EUA podem levar a economia a estagnar

21/04/2005 16:15

Greenspan alerta que défices recorde dos EUA podem levar a economia a estagnar
O presidente da Reserva Federal (Fed) dos EUA, Alan Greenspan, alertou o Congresso que os níveis recordes dos défices gémeos (orçamental e de conta corrente) do país podem ameaçar a economia norte-americana, afirmando que se não forem tomadas medidas a economia pode «estagnar ou pior».

Alan Greenspan disse que os responsáveis políticos tinham de reduzir os gastos e trabalhar para equilibrar o orçamento. «Não é provável que a nossa posição orçamental melhor substancialmente nos próximos anos, a não ser que sejam tomadas medidas maiores de redução do défice».

A administração de George W. Bush prevê que o défice orçamental atinja um recorde de 427 mil milhões de dólares (326,15 mil milhões de euros) este ano fiscal, que termina a 30 de Setembro. Em 2004 os EUA registaram um défice orçamental de 412 mil milhões de dólares (314,69 mil milhões de euros), um máximo histórico.

«Sobre as taxas de juro actuais e um suposição razoável em relação a outros gastos, estas projecções tornam claro que o orçamento de estado está num patamar insustentável», segundo o mesmo responsável. «A não ser que esta tendência seja invertida, de alguma forma, estes défices podem causar uma estagnação, ou pior, na economia».

O presidente da Fed tinha já alertado os responsáveis em Março de que o défice actual era «insustentável» e que seria necessário reduzir despesas antes que a geração «baby boom» (geração após a II Guerra Mundial) se reformasse.

Os desafios demográficos «vão requerer escolhas difíceis, e o desempenho futuro da economia vai depender dessas escolhas», afirmou o mesmo

[Info....]

Greenspan: Higher rates don't spell doom for housing

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Rising interest rates wouldn't necessarily cause a major downturn in the housing market, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Budget Committee on Thursday. In response to a question by Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., Greenspan said history shows higher rates would presumably slow new construction and the turnover of existing homes. Rising rates would possibly slow the rate of increase in house prices, "but it doesn't necessarily follow that [prices] go down," Greenspan said.

[Info....]

10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN: ECONOMY EXPANDING 'AT REASONABLY GOOD PACE'
10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN: MAJOR ACTION NEEDED TO IMPROVE BUDGET PATH
10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN REPEATS CALL FOR BUDGET ENFORCEMENT RULES
10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN REPEATS BUDGET ON 'UNSUSTAINABLE PATH'
10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN WORRIED ABOUT FUTURE MEDICAL SPENDING
10:00am 04/21/05 GREENSPAN: PROMISES TO BABY BOOMERS MAY NOT BE KEPT

Greenspan: Baby Boomer promises may not be kept

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that the long-term federal budget picture is unlikely to improve unless Congress takes "major deficit-reducing actions." Greenspan said the impending wave of Baby Boomer retirements underlines the need for action. Greenspan, in testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Budget Committee, said projecting future Social Security costs is relatively simple, but that the uncertainty about future medical spending is daunting. "I fear that we may have already committed more physical resourcs to the baby-boom generation in its retirement years than our economy has the capacity to deliver," he said.

Greenspan: Major budget action needed
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:37 AM ET April 21, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan warned lawmakers Thursday that "major deficit-reducing actions" are necessary to rein in a federal budget that remains on an unsustainable path.

In testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Budget Committee, Greenspan repeated a series of recent fiscal warnings and recommendations, including a call to reinstate congressional budget enforcement rules that were credited with eliminating red ink in the 1990s but have since expired.

He repeated a warning that rising medical costs and other retirement-related commitments, including Social Security, could make it impossible for the federal government to maintain currently promised levels of benefits as the generation of post-World War II Baby Boomers hit their golden years.

"I fear that we may have already committed more physical resources to the Baby Boom generation in its retirement than our economy has the capacity to deliver," Greenspan said.

Greenspan raised particular alarm over rising health care costs.

Since it's relatively easy to predict the size of the adult population in 2030, for example, forecasting the number of Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries is also straightforward. Since Social Security benefits are tied to wages, projecting future benefits is also relatively simple, he said.

It's much more difficult, however, to predict how rapidly medical technology will continue to advance and how those innovations will translate into future spending, he noted.

"As a result, the range of future possible outlays per recipient is extremely wide," Greenspan said.