“Confiança” na dívida da periferia é “positiva”

[Paciente]

Aqui fica uma notícia sobre as razões para este último salto da moeda sul-africana:


Strong trade surplus and gold underpin rand's gains

Reuters, Sapa-AFP and Bloomberg
February 03 2003 at 08:09AM

Johannesburg - A sharp swing back into the black for South Africa's trade balance helped the rand close firmer on Friday, with the local currency gaining after the euro rose against the dollar and the price of gold advanced following Thursday's slump in US stocks.

The rand strengthened as much as 1.2 percent to R8.515 to the dollar, from R8.6275 late the previous day. It was bid at R8.56 at the market's close, reflecting a gain of 1.7 percent last week.

Traders said news that South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R6.1 billion in December had helped the rand. That figure was sharply up from a R605.5 million deficit in November and was the largest surplus for 18 months, bringing the surplus for 2002 to R39.4 billion.

"It was mainly because of the trade numbers...exporters stepped in. I do think we will test the lower levels and target the R8.36 peak if we get through R8.53 to R8.54," one trader said.

"A strong surplus does underpin the rand," said Chris Hart, an economist at Absa Group.

The unit touched a 16-month high of R8.36 on January 6.

But analysts are divided on whether a prolonged rally in the rand
- which appreciated by 40 percent against the dollar last year - has run out of steam.

Market sources said the rand's longer-term outlook was weaker. Appetite for 2002's star performing currency would fall as the case for interest rate cuts by June this year hardened.

The central bank raised its key repo rate by 4 percentage points to 13.5 percent last year in a bid to quash soaring inflation, ignited mainly by the rand's plunge late in 2001.

The psychologically important gold price, keenly watched in a country which is one of the metal's largest producers, rose to about $368 an ounce from levels of about $363 late on Thursday.

South Africa's major export gained as much as 0.4 percent, approaching its six-year high set on January 27 as investors sought havens.

"It is gold and the weaker dollar," said George Glynos, a market analyst at MMS International. "Those are the factors driving the market at the moment."

Traders said the gain was mainly because of fears of what a Middle East war would do to equity and currency markets, even as US President George W Bush pressed what many saw as a last diplomatic drive to disarm Iraq and avoid a conflict.

The euro, the unit of South Africa's main trading partner, gained about half a cent against the dollar to e1.076, again on fears that US markets would bear the brunt of any impact stemming from a war against Iraq.

The dollar has been sold heavily in recent days, in tandem with shares on Wall Street, as sabre rattling by Washington appeared to bring the prospect of a Gulf conflict closer.

The euro gained against the dollar after Thursday's report by AOL Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, of the largest loss in US history sent the Dow Jones industrial average plunging to its lowest close since October 14.

Bonds firmed on the trade data, building on a rally supported by a raft of data last week suggesting that price pressures were abating.

This reinforces the view that the central bank may start cutting its key repo rate later this year, as a stronger rand cuts import costs, slowing inflation.

The yield on the short-dated R150 was at 10.99 percent from 11.03 percent previously, while the yield on the benchmark R153 bond, due in 2010, was 10.38 percent from 10.45 percent the day before.