Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ertai]

Dar uma desculpa para o mau desempenho da Adobe, dizendo que o Picasa da Google faz aquilo que o Photoshop faz para o pessoal amador com máquinas digitais, é pura especulação fundamental...

Mais uma pérola jornalistica..

Provavelmente não sabe que programas gratuitos como o Picasa já existem desde que o próprio Photoshop foi lançado.
E que quando se compra uma máquina digital, vêm quase sempre um CD com software de edição digital incluido com as mesmas ou mais capacidades do Picasa.

Obviamente ninguem vai comprar o Photoshop (programa de 200 contos) para andar a tirar olhos vermelhos e copiar/colar fotografias digitalmente

Grande parte das vendas do Photoshop são de profissionais que usam as extensas e complexas ferramentas do Photoshop... e nesse campo a concorrência é pouca... e o Picasa faz o mesmo que outra centena de programas Freeware/Shareware que estão diponiveis na Internet faz..

Tirando pseudo-fundamentalismos de lado, a cotação quebrou a LT ascendente de médio prazo e está neste momento numa tendência de médio prazo descendente.
Penso que o mercado está a ficar bom para o Position Trading ao invés do Swing Trading de 2004.

Comps

[Visitante]

Adobe Systems (ADBE) 58.15 -0.67: Some of the luster that shares of Adobe used to exhibit has worn off. One of the reasons for this is that Google has their Picasa product that is available for free from their website.

Many analysts and traders had been expecting Adobe to have a strong few quarters following the holiday season as there were high expectations for sales of digital cameras and phones that have cameras embedded in them. These photos would end up needing to be cropped and having the "red-eye" removed, all of which would spur growth for the Photoshop software sold by Adobe.

Many of these expectations have been tempered since the release of the Picasa software that Google has made available for free on its website. The Picasa software searches the hard drive for photos and stores them in one place. It also allows users to crop photos and take out "red eye." Picasa also includes the ability to email the photos directly from the program as well as order prints, and allows users to post the photos on the Internet.

A quick peak at a graph of ADBE stock price shows that the stock has moved from $50 to a recent high with a handle of $64. Since that point, the price has slipped along with the rest of the market. The only thing is that some of the steam that had been behind the sails of the company will certainly not help it when the broader market sees a recovery from the recent downtrend.

The popular Photoshop software was the dominant program in the space of graphics editing, and it still does a lot more than the Picasa software that Google offers. It can easily be expected that several of the people that would have purchased Photoshop will instead use Picasa in an effort to get something for nothing, and will forgo the more powerful Photoshop purely on a cost basis.

Adobe still has a firm grip on the market and continues to be the top play in the photo editing market. The only thing is that we now see a chink in the armor and we also note how quickly and easily it happened considering the dominance Adobe had. The lesson learned here is that no matter how much of the market you have, a free product in your space can do a lot to slow expectations, which in turn slows the number of buyers in the stock.

[Ertai]

A Adobe mostrou os earnings hoje depois do fecho, bateu as estimativas e mostrou um saudável aumento dos lucros..

Mas pelos vistos os investidores não gostaram do futuro imediato e fechou no Afterhours a descer mais de 3%.
Fechou precisamente nos 39 Dólares que é basicamente o suporte da LT ascendente de médio prazo.

Aqui fica a notícia:

Adobe Builds Up Profit

By Ronna Abramson
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
12/16/2004 4:50 PM EST

Adobe Systems (ADBE:Nasdaq - news - research) reported fourth-quarter results Thursday that beat its recently raised guidance as well as analysts' estimates.

The company also reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2005, which projects an approximately 12% jump in sales.

Under generally acceptable accounting principles, the San Jose, Calif.-based graphics software maker reported net income of $113.5 million, or 45 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, which ended Dec. 3. That was up from net income of $83.3 million, or 34 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier.

Excluding charges and investment gains and losses, Adobe said it earned pro forma net income of $110.4 million, or 44 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, compared with $83.0 million, or 34 cents a share, a year earlier.

Adobe, known for such products as Acrobat and Photoshop software, said revenue rose 19.8% to $429.5 million from $358.6 million a year earlier.

Wall Street analysts expected Adobe to earn pro forma net income of 42 cents a share on $419.1 million in revenue in the fourth quarter, according to Thomson First Call.

In late October, Adobe raised fourth-quarter guidance, saying revenue should range from $410 million to $425 million, up from a prior range of $400 million to $415 million. The company raised its outlook for earnings to a range of 40 cents to 43 cents a share from prior targets between 38 cents to 41 cents a share.

Looking forward, Adobe expects first-quarter revenue to range from $435 million and $455 million and first-quarter GAAP and non-GAAP earnings to range from 45 cents to 48 cents a share. Analysts were forecasting first-quarter revenue of $440.6 million and earnings of 45 cents a share.

Adobe reaffirmed guidance for fiscal year 2005, which calls for revenue to range from $1.85 billion to $1.9 billion, with an operating margin of 34% to 35%.

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/tech/sof ... 99595.html