Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[ra]

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. On a lower opening and early move down watch for support. If prices open higher and run up first then look for a lower washout move to the downside which will find support.ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, December 8, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 15.60 Value Area
Range: 12.30 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,192.80
Open 1,191.70
1,189.60
1,188.00-1,187.00 Sell Pivot
1,182.90 Pit Bull MA
Close 1,177.70
1,177.30
Low 1,177.20
1,172.25-1,173.25 Buy Pivot



Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, December 7, 2004:
S@1190.00/.25/B@1186.00 or lower ...+4.00 pts +

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning. Ideally we will keep the volatility rolling for a few more days as we head into the Christmas/December slower volume period.

Tuesday the markets got hammered as we had suggested with trade below 1188.00. After the first aberration on the underlying Sell Mode had run its course just above 1186.00 it was questionable if we were going to continue in another aberration. Today prices fell back just barely holding the lows of December.

Now the question remains will we find support in here and start to crank higher again. So far it appears that we will after some more bottom testing.

Here are my comments on the Wrap Up from Tuesday's trading.

"Today we were looking to get on the short side if higher prices occured first. We got a push up towards the 1193 resistance area and stalled. There was an MFO signal at 1190.00 where we got short..

Trading was pretty quiet earlier and the High 5 were mixed without a clear bias. Prices had pressed back up towards 1192.50 area at one point and then pulled back again.

I had advised traders that if they were willing to hold on and did not mind the potential for the market to run up to 1193.00 before falling back to stay short. Otherwise, traders who felt nervous could exit at that time which was the 1191.00 area.

I had stated that I was planning on holding short and continuing to have confidence in the downside. Prices started pulling back below our entry and moving lower. Big initial support came in at 1186.00 where we recommended covering not yet seeing what was coming.

Took +4.00 points profit on that trade. Later prices moved to 1184-85 area, stalled and then dropped down near 1181.00.

I had posted that we were going to leave some points on the table in the name of safety. Later prices pulled back all the way to 1177.00 area. Overall a good day although it would have been nice to catch a few more of those points."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today will be an important day to see how the support comes in and how hard we can bounce off of that.

First, we have to develop the support area which will depend on how they open and move in the first 20 minutes or so.

If we get a higher opening and early run up in prices then stay on the Sell side as the lower bottoming action gets tested. Usually a setup like that will get us going on some kind of "Washout bottom" type deal.

We still have this problem of slower holiday volume creeping in.

Alternative opening is if we see a gap lower or slightly lower opening and early run down towards the Buy Pivot target near 1172-73 area then we will be looking for support to buy.

This was a decent hammering today which really bought us back in line with what the Market Force indicators have been saying...IE: that the aberration on the Sell Mode had run its course with the higher prices and needed to "question" the attempt at a 2nd aberration. With this sell off it is quite possible now we could enter a new aberration and see the prices take off upside again.

We've got to have some kind of washout first and in this holiday volume environment it may be all the more tricky. Remember, the last several December periods have NOT been that bullish or positive. We could easily continue to get more of the same although this year has a more bullish "feel" to it than the other Decembers past.

RECOMMENDED TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: On a higher open and an early attempt to rally look for resistance at the 1182-83 area. Chance prices could attempt to BreakOut from the Hour One high and then pullback from there so keep an eye on that setup. I rather expect they will fall off sooner from an MFO signal which we will be watching for from the opening.

On a lower opening and early run lower we can look to Buy near the Buy Pivot target in the 1172-73 area. Will be looking for backup MFO signals for exact entry on our Live Update Service.

PLEASE JOIN US FOR A FREE TRIAL TO OUR LIVE UPDATE SERVICE. CALL (800)806-4801 TO REQUEST SOME TIME TO WATCH US TRADE.

Our goal is steady weekly profits, very tight stops, with the goal of averaging 3 points a day or 10 points a week. With that one can build a nice income.

Value Area: 1,177.30 - 1,189.60
Watch for trade below the VA that bounces back up into the VA to be neutral to bullish after an early, lower washout on the prices.

Today could end up just getting stuck near the lows for a while with decreasing holiday volume so we will be looking for that possibility.

Trade not expected to bounce back to the top of VA today. Probably 1182-84 will hold back any buying.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,172.25 - 1,173.25
Look for a long trade here if we get a flat to lower opening and early run down to this area.

1168.00 is the stop/pivot target and we would look for that to be strong support.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,188.00 - 1,187.00
Not expected to hit this today. It's a sell if we do.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,182.90
Wow. Once we blew through the Pit Bull yesterday (which was about the same as today's number due to averaging prices) things got a lot weaker.

Big question now will be if the prices can bounce back up here and sustain a move back through this to the upside.

For today it is expected that we will see this price area become a "Line in the Sand" as the market searches for a support area. Once this is found the big question will be if we can rally into the New Year like everyone was expecting.

I am still convinced we could see this. The next 2 days of trading will give us good hints as to what lies ahead.

Pro Trader's Action
I've outlined the scenarios we are looking for today and how we want to trade em.

A word of CAUTION that this drop may have left a lot of hopeful bulls shell shocked and the buying enthusiasm may have been kicked out of em temporarily...or at least for today.

I would continue to SCALP with the risk of missing some points like we did Tuesday. In this type of lower volume situation you can grab whats in front of you.

Later after 2005 we will be using our MFO system to hold out for longer trend moves and use more trailing stops as appropriate. Will be looking primarily to scalp 2-3-4 points as we get em over the next 2 weeks before we go on "Light Briefings" after December 15th.

Good Luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan