Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Google Finally Gets Real Analysis"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/24/2004 10:17 AM EST


"My hat's off to Anthony Noto at Goldman Sachs. He's carrying $3.47 EPS for Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research) next year. It would have been quite easy to slap a 100 multiple on that number -- same as Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research) -- and produce a $347 target.

He could have blown us all away with that and been "rigorous" in the sense that Google is growing faster and more smoothly than Yahoo! or eBay. He chose not to. And he should be saluted for that, because Noto knows the power that good analysts have and knows that they need to preserve it and not be caught up in the hoopla.

Instead of using pure multiple analysis, Noto factored in the consistent growth, at 25%, that he anticipates from Google, and came up with what he thought was a reasonable target given that growth. It was reasoned, severe and measured. Plus, he offered proprietary analysis about why Google's value-added search capabilities will keep the business humming longer than many think possible.

The analyst community got tarnished pretty badly in the deflation of the bubble. Some analysts have taken a hard look at what went wrong, about how they may have played a less than cautious role in creating an environment where lots of people got hurt. When you read through this well-reasoned, well-argued Google piece, you will see the fruits of one analyst's hard look.

Noto gets it. It's the reason he survived and so many others of that period failed. Introspection, remonstration and rigor produce great work. This report is great work. "

(in www.realmoney.com)