Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Market needs to take out 1159 on the downside to be bearish with Bear High 5 otherwise more suspension like Monday in anticipation of Wednesday's FOMC meeting on interest rates.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, November 9, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 4.70 Value Area
Range: 1.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,168.25-1,167.25 Sell Pivot
High 1,167.30
Close 1,166.50
1,165.80
Open 1,165.10
1,164.00
1,163.75-1,164.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,162.60
1,139.50 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 8, 2004:
S@1163.75/B@1165.50 -1.75

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's action.

Nothing much going on Monday with a tight range and no trending morning direction. Overall market was weak but they couldn't smack em down signficantly. We held short all day ...but no cigar.

Here are my Wrap Up comments on the Live Update service.

"Today was an extremely slow day with a tight range of just about 3 pts.

We were looking for a stronger sell off type day today with the early market showing very little strength.

We got short at 1163.75/64.00 just before the first hour. There were characteristic signs that we were going to move lower with the High 5 showing signs of a sneak down type market day.

However, as the market started to push lower support would come in under 1163 and prices kept pushing up against 1165-66.00. We held all day very near to the closing area before finally just getting out at 1165.50/.75 area for a -1.75 loss.

Nothing really going on today. FOMC MEETING ON WEDNESDAY and Thursday is Veterans Day holiday. Market will be open but maybe pretty slow."

Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to be careful today with market bias as yesterday was pegged to sell off and prices stagnated in small range.

Today we need to see a clear High 5 bias along with price action to confirm downside action or we are going to hang up again in the prices.

Wednesday's FOMC meeting may also end up being an impetus for prices to stabalize and possibly even move higher. With the Bearish/Neutral readings and the question of what will occur on Wednesday makes today's market ripe for a confusing mix of directional bias.

So extra caution is warranted today although we want to be willing to get short and look for lower prices if we see the setup occuring.

RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: If we hit the Hour One low again today FIRST then there is a good chance we are going to move lower below that. Depending on the High 5 appearance we can guage how low.

If we rally or attempt to rally in the early session then there is a good chance we will sell off the BreakOut after prices possibly try to test Monday's Highs again near 1167-68 and possibly 1171.00 again.

The Neutral Market Force reading along with the Bearish reading makes the overall bias more questionable especially in light of the fact that prices did not get hit to the downside yesterday.

Value Area: 1,164.00 - 1,165.80
Small VA range today does not give us much information. Prices holding below 1163 today is the first bearish sign. Below 1159-60 is a stronger bearish sign.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,163.75 - 1,164.75
Support here but if prices stall here and move below 1159.50 then we could test 1157.00 which is lower stronger support.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,168.25 - 1,167.25
A run up here that fails today should send the prices down to test 1159-60.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,139.50
The spread is tightening between current prices and the Pit Bull. If the short side works out today this will be tightened considerably on tommorrows calculation. It is expected that prices and Pit Bull will eventually meet near the 1144 area to draw a "line in the sand" as to where we are going.

Pro Trader's Action
This is going to end up a rather slow week it appears with Monday's action and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday with Veterans day holiday on Thursday.

We will not make trading recommendations in front of the FOMC announcements as is our tradition and on Thursday we will look for trades but it may be very slow and we could end up standing aside.

So we just work with what we have and see if we can get some action on the short side today as a follow up to Monday's stagnation.

Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan