Detetado primeiro caso de conflito de interesses no PRR

[NirSup]

Tendências de longo prazo

Sobre as tendências de longo prazo, em associação livre, veio-me esta ideia à memória: se a tendência de longo prazo das bolsas de valores (e falo das americanas que a nossa é para esquecer) é de subida e não de descida (quem tiver dúvidas que veja as estatísticas) por que razão há tanta gente a apostar e a perder dinheiro no SHORT SELLING?
Estatisticamente falando, repito, estatisticamente falando, não é mais fácil ou mais habitual, vá lá, ganhar dinheiro estando longo?
Então por que razão apostam tantos nas descidas? Será por masoquismo ou pelo prazer de perder dinheiro?
Não sei se este comentário se enquadra no espírito da coisa. Mas uma coisa é certa: para as empresas petrolíferas 2020 é para esquecer.
By Nirvana

[Pata-Hari]

Engraçado voltar a este comentário passados estes anos todos. Perfeitamente na mouche.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Don't Lose Sight of the Long-Term Trends"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/18/2011 12:05 PM EDT


"Now you can sell. Now you can dump your Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now). Now you can offload your Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Trade Now). Don't like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Trade Now)? This is your chance.

Mind you, I wouldn't do any of these trades. As I wrote yesterday, the day when it was right to sell these stocks has come and passed, and the day to take profits in Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Trade Now) and the General Mills (GIS - commentary - Trade Now) is here. The staples are almost all selling at twice their growth rates after this miracle run, and fund managers get real uncomfortable buying these lower-growth stocks with those stretched valuations.

At the same time, the Caterpillars and the Cummins (CMI - commentary - Trade Now) have sold off as if business has hit a wall, or, more important, as if they were about to hit a wall. This is a little absurd, given that they have real order books, and the books are levered to long-term issues such as the shortage of coal in India and China or the need to dig for unconventional oil in the tar sands of Canada.

People want to believe that every penny tick against the euro or every 50 cents of oil is the end of the world. They think it some sort of board game where you go down a chute and up a ladder on the spin of a wheel or the toss of some dice. The reality is so different. We play the trajectory game -- oops, looks like oil's going lower, buy the retailers, sell the machineries. In reality, the decisions that are being made have to do with long-term issues, such as population growth, mouths to feed -- hence it is ridiculous to sell Deere (DE - commentary - Trade Now) -- or the need to heat homes. The people who want to heat homes are not sitting there and saying, "Hmm, oil's down, cancel that project." They are saying, "I don't care where oil is trading, I gotta have enough juice to meet the demand of the thermostat."


Of course, that is lost on the casino that stocks trade in, where every game is the World Series and there can be no tick not worth betting on. We bet on inconsequential games as if they are actually affecting the bigger trends. Do we really think that Brazil is not going to drill at $80 and drill like mad at $120? The truth is that they need oil, and they can make money on oil at either price. Same thing with the miners.

Any publicly traded company that has any mineral in the ground wants to bring it out, because the longer trends are intact, even as we flit in and out of Kraft (KFT - commentary - Trade Now) because of a 4-cent commodity headwind.

I am not saying it's all wrong. I am saying that in the larger scheme, you can't keep flitting into the staples if their growth rate isn't improving, and you can't keep flitting out of the industrials if the longer-term trends are in place, and all that is happening is that countries are tapping on the brakes to give us sustainable growth and not boom-bust. Remember, when commodities were flying high, all we heard was how dangerous this would ultimately be for the commodity-related stocks if the central banks don't stop fueling too-hot growth. So now we hear how bad it is for the commodity-related stocks because the central banks are taking just the action we want?

Can't have it both ways.

I like my prediction from yesterday that it is too late to sell the commodity-related stocks and the industrials but just early enough to sell the staples. However, even if you disagree, you sure as heck have a better chance to sell the cyclicals now than you did yesterday -- another case of how panicking never made anybody a dime.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long CAT, DE and CMI. "

(in www.realmoney.com)