Ao minuto: EUA entram na ofensiva contra o Irão e atacam instalações nucleares

[SURFMARKET]

Good night,

To see the Portuguese version go to - Versão em Português: http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84037.
To understand the methodology presented on this topic please read the few lines below.
To see the most recent information on this topic click the link above and chose the last page. There you'll have available the latest tables with the analysis and forecast of the next day of trade.

Methodology

Today I’m opening this topic in order to be just another member of this forum that will contribute with his simple opinion. I’ll be just one more of many others who are here giving their opinion. The only difference is that in the middle of my presentation I’ll be talking a lot of ... "Water" ... surf ... windsurf ...

First of all let me say that if all goes as normal, daily I’ll be feeding this info until the end of the 1st semester of 2015. At that time, based on the evolution of the topic and according to the receptivity / opinion of the forum readers, I'll take in consideration the alternatives and decide the continuity of the information / opinion here provided.

What I’m presenting here is a monitoring framework "SurfMarket" supported on the compilation of multiple data. It also aims to be a complement information of the usual approaches:
- Fundamental Analysis (searches for accounting to define the fair value of a share); and
- Technical Analysis (searches the capital market to define the fair value of a share).

My SurfMarket is a mathematical model developed over several years and here will be available in a summary format. The presentation will be supported on a monitoring framework to facilitate the reading process / decision regarding the presence / absence on the market in general and also being in / out on each stock. This is a specially oriented analysis tool for the Very Short Term / Short Term, respectively 15 days to 1 month and also for the 1 to 2 months.

Made this little introductory memo, to facilitate the explanation of the instrument / table below, metaphorically I’ll need to recreate an image / situation with variables / indicators / forces that support the information provided by the mathematical model developed.

Now contextualizing, imagine that there is a windsurfing championship for teams and every day in various locations there is a race / performance evaluation of the various teams in competition. Daily, depending on the location, there would be a different list of variables / forces that would have interference on the performance. We would need to analyze their status (favorable / unfavorable) and the optimal combination of those multiple forces to reach the best performance of the teams.

In other words and simplistically, we could say that the following variables / forces would have undoubtedly influenced the final result:
1) Day of the year (variable associated with the season - "CLIMATE" positive or negative);
2) The site - river mouth (variable associated with ocean currents - "TIDE" positive or negative);
3) Wind (variable associated with atmospheric situation - "WIND" positive or negative);
4) "BEST" Performers - Benchmark reference which allows us to copy the behavior of the best windsurfers - with positive or negative performance;
5) "DECISION" - Decision made taking into account the multiple data gathered in points 1), 2), 3) and 4);
6) "FINAL" Evaluation - Result obtained by combining the summary results of the previous points 1), 2), 3), 4) and 5) - favorable / unfavorable (this summary assessment is reflected in the tables by arrows).

Well, based on the previous metaphor and taking as reference the framework of forces presented on the situation exposed, now imagine the transposition / parallelism of this reference of framework applied to the capital market. The results of the mathematical model constructed are summarized in the table below and intend to assess / realize / provide the daily extrapolate through a FINAL Evaluation 6) (favorable / unfavorable) about the behavior / performance of:
1) Individual stock - analysis individually each stock of the PSI 20;
2) Collective - not only by analyzing individually the PSI 20 indices, but also by analyzing and combining the individual readings of 1).

The ultimate goal of the table seeks to ascertain the:
1) forecast in advance of entry / presence / participation on the market; and
2) which stocks are recommended at all times.

Three final notes:
1) The "TREND" column tries to anticipate the next day behavior based on the assumption that the last day behavior is repeated on the next day;
2) each cell background color is the predominant feeling perception given by the model based on the market behavior of the day (PSI 20 and COUNT of individual readings of the companies comprising the PSI 20);
3) The model seeks to reconcile the lowest number of "trades" with the highest possible returns.

Last Note: The information presented, results from the construction of a mathematical model supported on the historical analysis of the stock prices of the companies comprising the PSI 20. After several years of research, it seemed to me that the minimum conditions were fulfilled to make this information available (in my opinion useful) that facilitates decision making of entry / presence, or not in the market. This is the actual result of something that is in continuous improvement and therefore not concluded. It’s a mere proposal of another alternative form of "looking" to the market trends and as so has a relative validity that lacks the critical analysis of each investor before any investment decision. This note ultimately aims to inform that I can’t be blamed for any consequence resulting from the information here provided.

Thank you and best regards,

SurfMarket