Wall Street fecha semana sem rumo. Grandes tecnológicas pressionam

[Antunes]

...ainda bem que aceita opiniões contrárias as suas.

Eu tb as aceito e até as agradeço porque há sempre mais a aprender...

Relativamente ao "January issue", a verdade é que surtiu efeito no ano passado nos índices que fizeram novos máximos mas não nas acções mais transaccionadas nos futuros tal como a nossa PTC. Pode ver isso nos gráficos...

Como eu transacciono acima de tudo PTC não estou minima/ preocupado com esse POSSÍVEL "January efect"

[BonVivant]

Stay tuned to the January issue, I see several factors
coming together that will finally lift the market
higher. Plus I'll explain why I believe the next
several months will mark the start of a new bull
market.

..................................................................
Opinar é um conceito de liberdade...later as explicações de Louis aqui serão postadas para conhecimento de toda a comunidade !!!

Cumprimentos

[Antunes]

..."Never buy a stock because of his dividends"

[BonVivant]

Hotline
December 14, 2002

This is Louis Navellier. It is Saturday, December 14, 2002.

I have to tell you that I’m pretty pleased with what’s happening. The market is getting a little volatile but our stocks seem to be getting firmer. We have some stocks that are strong and some are just drifting sideways in a volatile market. And some have pulled back but they are great buys right now. So I’m feeling pretty comfortable with how the whole buy list is shaping up right now.

The big news this week is President Bush’s new economic team. Believe it or not, these folks are not going to have a lot of influence in the Bush Administration because the tax cuts that the Bush Administration wants to push are already written. These new economic advisors (the Economic Advisor and Treasury Secretary) are going to go sell the tax cut plan to Congress.

Both the advisors they hired are famous for wanting balanced budgets, but they’re going to say to Congress, "Hey, even though we like balanced budgets, we need tax cuts now and we’re going to have to run a deficit." So President Bush hired salespeople to sell Congress on his new tax cuts that he’s going to try and push through at the beginning of the year.

Priority #1 with these tax cuts is dividend tax relief. About 10 days ago, the Wall Street Journal featured this issue on its cover. It suggested that dividend tax relief is going to be more than likely on the individual level versus the corporate level because it will be cheaper and because it will get the Bush Administration more political brownie points. If you are a voter and no longer have to pay taxes on dividends, you appreciate that.

Think of the ramifications of what’s going to happen if dividends are tax-free. Right now the Dow has a greater dividend yield than a five-year Treasury security. So a five-year Treasury security has interest lower than the dividends you can get on the Dow. If the dividends on the Dow are tax-free and on the five-year Treasury security you have to pay 38.6% Federal taxes, people in the bond market and people who have money in CDs are going to start to put money in stocks. Why would they want to pay 38.6% taxes when they can pay nothing?

Strong cash flow companies are going to be bugged by their shareholders to distribute dividends to them. A lot of times companies say "We’re going to retain this money so you can get higher capital gains and have favorable taxes (20% capital gains taxes)." Zero percent is more favorable than 20%, though, and it’s going to put a lot of pressure on companies like Microsoft and Cisco to pay dividends.

The Bush Administration also wants to get dividend tax relief through because it’s going to affect the stock market. The stock market is wild and it oscillates in wild trading patterns. But if the dividend yields are higher, it will oscillate less. That will help business confidence and consumer confidence. It’s a big bet—it’s risky—but it’s long overdue. Alan Greenspan has been calling for it. All the economic think tanks are calling for it. It’s going to be a dam-break, a watershed event for the stock market.

As soon as you get any wind that this double taxation of dividends elimination is imminent, hang on. It’s going to be explosive. It could be as much as 2,000 points on the Dow. Some managers could get 20% - 30% in one month. Hang on—this is going to be an incredible event. Bond yields may rise because they’re not tax advantaged like dividends, so it’s going to be interesting.

I was in New York City and in Washington, DC this week. I’ve always found that people are a little bit more skeptical there than elsewhere, probably because of their newspapers and things they read. They kept convincing me that if there is dividend tax relief, there is going to be a cap on it. It could be $5,000 or $15,000—I don’t care. Let’s just get it going and get some money going into the stock market. Obviously, I would like all dividends to be tax-free for everyone.

Speaking of dividend tax relief, there have been companies out there raising their dividends. GE and Nike are two. Lowe’s Corp. (LOW) this week raised its dividend, so that’s good. It’s on the buy list.

The other interesting thing this week is that some companies are no longer providing earnings guidance. One of them is Coca-Cola (KO). Coca-Cola’s biggest shareholder is Warren Buffett. He never provides earnings guidance for Berkshire Hathaway and he maybe convinced the folks at Coke to do that. I actually think that hurt Coke temporarily, but I think it will stabilize. I have downgraded Coke to a "hold" because they are no longer providing earnings guidance.

Speaking of earnings guidance, WellPoint Health Networks (WLP) reiterated that they are very comfortable with their earnings forecast for next year. I think that is helping the battered health care sector come roaring back. Of course, the better health care sector will have record earnings.

Procter & Gamble (PG) raised its earnings outlook for the fifth-straight quarter. Procter & Gamble has been aggressively buying its stock back. I expect more phenomenal earnings reports from Procter & Gamble.

Next week Lowe’s Corp. (LOW) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) will announce earnings. Bed, Bath and Beyond has been a little soft here. I expect it to have record earnings and to come roaring back.

Let me tell you what the "sells" are this month for the buy list. The first "sell" this month is Diageo PLC (DEO), the largest spirits company in the world. They just sold Burger King and the stock is actually bouncing here so you can sell it into strength. I’m also selling Gillette (G). It has been a little bit too quiet for me and it’s starting to come back here a bit but I think we should sell Gillette and buy something better.

I’m also selling HCA (HCA). They had been tainted by past Medicare billing scandals, but they are rebounding here and you can sell them into strength. When the bad news on Tenet Healthcare hit, I think they were hit more than most health care companies and I think they’ll be slow to recover.

So again, the "sells" are Diageo PLC (DEO), Gillette (G) and Hospital Corp. of America (HCA).

There is one new "buy" this month, Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA). It is a generic pharmaceutical company based in Israel with vast operations in North America and Europe. About 80% of their sales are in North America and Europe. The Bush Administration has been pushing generic pharmaceuticals to keep health care costs down. We had another generic pharmaceutical on the buy list in the past, Forest Labs. It got a little volatile so I sold it, but it’s still acting pretty well. So if you’re going to be in the pharmaceutical industry, we really recommend the generics and Teva is our favorite right now.

So use the proceeds from your sales of Diageo PLC (DEO), Gillette (G) and Hospital Corp. of America (HCA) to buy Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). It is a conservative stock.

You might have some money left over after that and I would buy any of the Top 5 stocks on the buy list. They are ENI (NYSE: E), the Italian oil company with vast interests in Iraq and Stryker (SYK), the orthopedics company that makes knees, hips, etc. Also on the Top 5 is Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), our new addition to the buy list. Dell Computers (DELL), a moderately aggressive stock, is still a Top 5 stock and Fox Entertainment (FOX) is Top 5 as an aggressive stock.

So take any money left over after you purchase Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) and spread it among some of the other Top 5 stocks.

We’ve been getting a lot of emails on short selling. I don’t do short selling in newsletters. We do have hedge funds at our firm where we do short selling, but I don’t plan to recommend shorts in the newsletter. Let me tell you why.

If you study the market for this quarter, you will find your best performing stocks are the telecoms like WorldCom, Lucent, Nortel and some other controversial stocks like AOL have been phenomenal this quarter. That’s a short squeeze. Sometimes people short stocks and they can bounce 100% in a few weeks. That’s why I don’t recommend short selling in newsletters. It’s too fast and too furious. Between the time I publish and you get the letter or by the time I update the hotlines, you could lose a lot of money.

So I don’t recommend short selling in newsletters, though I do have hedge funds at our firm where we short. But I do want you to know that our firm has a long bias because when you go long, stocks are less volatile than when you go short.

Over the past two years, there have been incredible short covering rallies. We’re having one this quarter where the telecoms are up over 100%. We had one a year ago at this time where techs were up 45% in October and November and then they fizzled. That was a short squeeze—one of the biggest ones I’ve ever seen in history. And then in April 2001, the techs were up 35% on a short squeeze. Then they came out with current earnings and fizzled.

So if you short stocks, you almost have to have a trading mentality and you must have a fast trigger. Although we do it at our firm and we have short experts, I’m not the expert in it and the truth is that I don’t want to put it in the newsletters anyway because I just don’t think we could be fast enough. Hopefully that answers your questions about that.

Let me tell you what the best stocks are right now. We’ve reformulated the buy list. First of all, there are a lot of "holds." Air Products & Chemicals (APD) is now downgraded to a "hold."

CNOOC (CEO), the Chinese oil company, is also downgraded to a "hold." Oil prices are soft right now. OPEC is overproducing. There may be a war in Iraq, but it will probably cause oil prices to fall because it will help unleash more of that Iraqi oil as they rebuild their country. And OPEC is overproducing anyway.

Coca-Cola (KO) is downgraded to a "hold." UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is downgraded to a "hold." Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a "hold." And WellPoint Health Networks (WLP) is a "hold." So some of the stocks that have been a little quiet have been downgraded to a "hold."

Let me tell you how stocks are looking one by one here. Starting with the conservative stocks, Air Products & Chemicals (APD) has gone from moderately aggressive to conservative. It has pulled back and appears to be trying to base. It is a "hold" and I don’t want you to buy any more shares.

Anheuser Busch (BUD) has pulled back and I think it’s an excellent buy right now. There was a good article this week in the newspapers about how Anheuser Busch has been successfully raising its prices quietly and that will help its profit margins.

CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), the Chinese oil company, had been strong but I want to downgrade it to a "hold.’ Oil prices are a little soft right now. If Iraq is invaded, oil prices will probably get softer yet. So because of soft oil prices, I’ve downgraded CNOOC to a "hold."

Coca-Cola (KO) is getting better here. It did get hit the day that it decided it’s no longer going to give earnings forecasts. It’s kind of getting ready to base here but it is a "hold" and I don’t want you to buy any more.

ConAgra Foods (CAG) looks pretty strong. I still think it’s a very good buy here. It’s one of our best conservative stocks.

ENI (E), the Italian oil company, is now in the Top 5. What everybody finds ironic about this is that they have vast interests in southern Iraq, where the oil fields are. It has pulled back and is an incredible buy right now. If there is an invasion of Iraq or if Iraq is opened up, they’re going to be one of the biggest winners. The oil contracts in Iraq are going to go to the French, Italian and Russian oil companies, so I’m very, very bullish on ENI right now. It’s now a Top 5 stock. A lot of people find it ironic that if there is a war in Iraq, this stock will benefit. But it is, so they’ll be pumping a lot more oil from Iraq within the next year.

Harley-Davidson (HDI) has pulled back and I think it’s an excellent buy. Harley-Davidson, I have to admit, is annoying. It tends to rally with its earnings and in between earnings it is quiet. But I’m very, very comfortable with Harley-Davidson right now. It’s an excellent buy—probably the best buy this week.

Procter & Gamble (PG) looks very strong. It should be strong because it has been guiding Wall Street higher, so it is the best performing stock in the Dow. It’s looking great and benefitting from a weak dollar. Progressive (PGR), the insurance company, has pulled back and I think it’s a good buy right now. Of course, their auto insurance and their auto insurance rates have been going up so they’re benefiting from that.

Stryker (SYK), the orthopedics company, is a Top 5 stock. It has pulled back and I think it’s a good buy. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) had been strong. It’s basing and is a good buy right now. It’s a perfect time to accumulate shares of our new addition to the buy list. It’s also a Top 5 stock.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a "hold" now. It is definitely recovering, but it is a "hold." It’s going to have record earnings and I think it will come roaring back. I want you to hold it. I have plenty of health care stocks on the buy list, so I don’t need you to add any more right now.

Wrigley’s (WWY) is getting stronger. This is a stock that gets stronger when things get tough. So I like this stock because it helps to stabilize my portfolios.

Moving on to the moderately aggressive stocks, Dell Computers (DELL) had an incredible run for some time. It’s now pulling back and I think it’s a good buy right now as one of our Top 5 stock. It’s really my only true tech holding right now.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) pulled back and is a very good buy right now. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has pulled back and I have a "hold" on it. Let’s face it, though. If they start bombing Iraq, this stock is going to rally. I want to hold it in the portfolio because it has record contracts and it is going to have record earnings. So I’m disappointed with its weakness, but I think this stock could explode once the war commences (if it does).

Nissan Motors (NSANY) remains exceptionally strong. It’s still one of my favorite stocks. it just missed being in the Top 5, but it’s a great, great stock. If you don’t own it, please buy it.

TJX Companies (TJX) had been strong but it pulled back and is a good buy here near-term. The retailers are having a mixed holiday season, but discount retailers like TJX will do the best. Wal-Mart (WMT) has pulled back and I think it’s an excellent buy right now. They’ll do fine this holiday season as they’ve already had their record biggest one-day sale ever. They’re doing fine.

WellPoint Health Networks (WLP) is downgraded to a "hold." It’s getting stronger buy I want you to hold it. It’s going to have record earnings and, of course, it has reaffirmed its earnings estimates, so it will be fine.

Moving on to the aggressive and more powerful stocks, Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) has pulled back and is a great buy right now. I love this stock and it is going to have great earnings.

Fox Entertainment (FOX) is one of our Top 5 stocks. It has been strong but it pulled back and it’s an excellent buy right now. I’m sure you know that Fox is capturing more ratings from the major networks, so it’s going to get higher advertising revenue.

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is a good buy right now. It’s trying to strengthen here. It’s the homebuilder. And Lowe’s Corp. (LOW), the home improvement store, is surprisingly weak. It’s going to have good earnings next week. It just raised its dividend. I think it’s a great buy right now.

As the year draws to a close here, our volume is very erratic, but Wall Street is becoming increasingly focused on earnings. Our stocks are going to release great earnings from about mid-January on. We’re going to have good earning next week from Lowe’s Corp. (LOW) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY).

When the new Congress convenes, there will be dividend tax relief that’s going to help the stock market. And I would not be surprised to see the market explode. I think this the most bullish thing I may ever see in my lifetime.

A lot of people are worried about the Iraqi situation, but to be candid with you, if we do go to war, it will be deemed bullish. The strongest quarter I ever had was back in the Gulf War when, under management, I surged over 40%. So it will remove uncertainty that has been plaguing the stock market if there is military action in Iraq. Or, if it’s just resolved peacefully, that’s fine, too.

It will be interesting to see what happens. A lot of bullish forces are converging and I think the market has been bounced along the bottom. There have been some short covering rallies here and some questionable stocks leading the market. Now they’re rolling over and the quality stocks that we have are going to just do phenomenally well.

That’s all that’s happening. I’ll keep updating the hotlines any time the Dow swings more than 200 points per day or the NASDAQ swings more than 100 points per day. So I’ll keep talking to you during fast market conditions. And I’ll update this hotline next Saturday as I always do. Take care, everybody.